We’re about to wrap up the first decade of the 21st century. Here’s a bit of prognostication and advice for the coming year.
- The new frugality will continue. Consumer spending will stay low. It’s a good idea. Hang onto your money. It’s tough, especially with the holiday season upon us, but this is a time to build up and protect your reserves. Specifically, hold off on buying the ebook reader or other new tech for spending reasons; also, see #2 below.
- Revolutionary consumer grade technology is just around the corner. Only make technology purchases if your current gadgets are broken AND essential. I’m expecting big changes in 2010, including the rumored Apple tablet. And avoid buying it right away, too (I am unlikely to follow my own advice on that one).
- If you have a job, keep it. Although the stock market is up and GDP figures are looking better, jobs and hiring are not. This is not the time to quit an existing job without a better one in hand.
- If you don’t have a job, start your own business. While I don’t recommend quitting your job to blaze a new trail, if you are already unemployed, you’re unlikely to find a job right away. That makes it a terrific time to start your own business!
- Don’t buy that Blu-Ray player. If you already have one, stop buying Blu-Ray discs. I think it’s clear that the platform isn’t going to take off. The discs are too expensive and the payoff isn’t that great in increased picture quality, especially if you have a up-converting DVD player, like the one I use – cheap and very good picture quality (here’s a Sony model for under $60). I did buy a Blu-Ray player earlier in the year and wish I hadn’t. Stick with DVDs and wait for high definition downloads to take off, which I believe will be in the coming year.
- Consider dropping your home phone line and perhaps your cable TV plan. Do you really need a “land line” when you are already paying for a cell phone? And for TV, it’s looking like very soon you’ll be able to subscribe to the shows you want to watch and simply download them to watch in HD. Why pay for literally hundreds of channels you don’t watch? Get the local channels for free over the air in HD and save money by canceling your phone and cable. Perhaps spend a bit more in high speed broadband internet access.
- Cancel your magazine subscriptions, and yes, newspaper subscriptions, too. They’re becoming nothing but advertisements. Seek online alternatives.
- Watch for collapse of additional major businesses, including major brand names. And look for the rise of multiple, small, very small competitive businesses in their place. Get use to the idea that no business will likely last more that a few decades, unless the business can completely reinvent itself, essentially becoming a very different company. If you work for one of these giants, even if things look good for now, be prepared. Industries on the verge of these major collapses? Newspapers, magazine and book publishing, movie studios, music labels, television networks, personal computer hardware, consumer retail (especially fashion and clothing).
- Prepare to fight for local resources, especially your local library. The loss of revenue will make it very tempting for your local government to attempt to slash funding, even close these vital resources. Don’t wait for it to happen. Get organized now. Believe it or not, the library could be one of the key resources that you’ll need in the next few years. They’ll be especially important to those out of work and unable to afford online access, training, and education.
- Learn to cook (if you don’t cook already) and learn to eat better for less. The “Eat on $50 per week” ideas, from sites like Fifty Bucks A Week are full of ideas. Frankly, it’s not that hard and we’re talking about $50/person. You’ll be healthier, have more fun, and save money, which should be a big theme for the coming year. And when you do eat out, you’ll enjoy it more.
The Looking Forward Into 2010 by Randy Murray, unless otherwise expressly stated, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
You mentioned a range of vulnerable media, but I would be interested to know what you think about radio. I don’t think the internet streaming services that supposedly play the music you like, even come close and as for talk radio, here in the UK there is nothing quite like Radio 4 (except NPR perhaps.) Admittedly I do listen back to my favourite radio shows via the computer but in the car you need the traffic news and so on. All the best,
Lucy
Lucy – a good point and I think you’re right. I think that local media, like radio, have a good chance at survival for the near term – but local is the key word.
A great tip I read somewhere: skip the middle aisles of the grocery store, those are the unhealthy and overpriced items.
1. Regarding #8: I definitely agree with you about “newspapers, magazine and book publishing, movie studios, music labels, television networks” – those are definitely going the way of the dodo. But why personal computer hardware and consumer retail (especially fashion and clothing)? You can’t download physical items.
My point on personal computer hardware and retail could bear expansion. As to computer hardware, I predict that the conventional laptop will be replaced by the true tablet computer. The rumored Apple iTablet could completely revolutionize the way we carry computers. And if it’s successful, it could drive the desktops away as well. Imagine a home server, bolted to the wall in your basement, replacing not just your desktop computers but your cable boxes as well.
As to retail and fashion – I expect there to be some significant shakeups in the major retailers – Macy’s in particular. If those department stores are dramatically downsized or eliminated it could shakeup the fashion industry and force it more “downstream” to the Targets and Wal-Marts.
It’s not just about what you can download – it’s about how we buy and what we buy.
Thanks for your comment!
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