The conversation goes like this: He says, “I love watching _blank_ on TV. Do you watch it?” And she says, “No, what night is it on?” To which he replies with a puzzled expression, “I have no idea.”
You can also insert the time and probably the channel into this conversation. The DVR and digital downloads are making scheduled TV largely irrelevant. And if you look at news stories like this one, “What happened to Friday night TV” you might also wonder, “Who cares?”
The major networks, ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox, are desperately trying to hold onto the past, thinking that if they can just get the right shows, in the right order, then viewers will magically return and everything will be just like it used to be.
But that approach no longer works very well. The contract has been broken. The contract where the big networks produce and broadcast TV shows and charge advertisers to display their commercials during the programs at a particular time and date. Our part of the bargain was to watch them both, the shows and the commercials. But if we watch the programs when we want AND skip over the commercials, the whole thing comes apart.
So, what’s next?
Here’s what I think will work:
- Broadcast TV goes away, except for local programming, like the news. Even that will probably need to be viewer supported, a version of PBS. We won’t need four local channels and they won’t have enough revenue to operate. Other news and local programing will go online.
- The big four TV networks go away or become smaller, more versatile production companies. They deliver their content digitally thru subscriptions, like HBO, digital downloads, like thru iTunes, or thru other methods, like direct to DVD.
- Or we take a big step back in time and the networks and production companies link up with single advertisers or true “sponsors” for new programming. The Flintstones brought to you by Winston Cigarettes.
- New players will emerge out of both the professional ranks and talented amateurs. Take a look at Dr. Horrible’s Sing Along Blog and The Guild
This also means something else very interesting: billions of advertising dollars up for grabs. This means opportunities for new players in entertainment. The void won’t stay empty long. Who needs a network? Time to go out there and make your own show and distribute it on your own.
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